LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GUSTAV IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A NON-TROPICAL UPPER LOW. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANT AND WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS IS DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
GUSTAV HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AS IT IS STEERED AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 035/41. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED AND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AND TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV AND NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 960 MB. PRESUMABLY THE CORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THE INTERACTION OF GUSTAV WITH THE NON-TROPICAL UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GUSTAV AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER LOW.
Updated 09/12/02
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