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Tropical Storm Arthur...

From the National Hurricane Center:

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS SUGGEST THAT ARTHUR HAS NOT STRENGTHENED ANY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE IS ALSO BEGINNING TO TAKE ON THE APPEARANCE OF AN OCCLUDED EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESURE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT. 

ARTHUR HAS BEEN ACCLERATING MUCH FASTER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/34 BASED ON AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS HAS BEEN CLOSE TO 40 KT. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING DOWN ARTHUR BY 12 HOURS AND TAKING THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD AS AN EXTRATOPICAL LOW UNTIL LANDFALL OVER NEWFOUNDLAND OCCURS BY 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ONLY A LITTLE FASTER. 

ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BAROCLINIC SUPPORT TO PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING AS PER DISCUSSIONS WITH THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER AND THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER. EVEN THE THE GFDL MODEL IS INDICATING SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 55 KT JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

Updated 07/16/02

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