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Tropical Storm Edouard...
From the National Hurricane Center:
IN SPITE OF CONTINUED WESTERLY SHEAR...EDOUARD HAS BEEN MAINTAINING VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECON AIRCRAFT FLYING AT 1000 FT ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 55 TO 60 KT. THEY ALSO FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF UP TO 71 KT. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 1002 BUT HAS SINCE INCHED UP. BASED ON THE RECON REPORTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.
THE ADVISORY MOTION IS NOMINALLY STATIONARY...BUT THE MOST RECENT FIX WAS SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT EDOUARD IS BEGINNING TO MOVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE CYCLONE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY EDOUARD WILL GET TO THE COAST. THE 06Z AVN SEEMED TO HAVE TROUBLE HANGING ON TO THE VORTEX AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. LANDFALL TIMINGS VARY FROM ABOUT 36 HOURS WITH THE GFDL TO 72 WITH THE UKMET. RIGHT NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THIS MIGHT HAVE TO BE MOVED UP IF A DEFINITIVE MOTION TREND IS CONFIRMED.
THE STRONG WINDS FOUND BY THE RECON AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING WERE A SURPRISE. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN THINNING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR BEING INGESTED INTO THE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE SHORT TERM INTENSITY THINKING IS THAT THE CONVECTIVE VIGOR...AND THE WINDS...WILL DECREASE. LONGER-TERM...THE INTENSITY DEPENDS ON HOW THE SHEAR PATTERN EVOLVES OVER EDOUARD. THERE IS DIVERSITY IN THE GUIDANCE ON THIS SCORE...WITH THE ETA SHOWING 50 KT NORTHWESTERLIES OVER THE CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS ONLY ABOUT 20 KT. THE AVN IS IN BETWEEN. SO THE POSSIBILITY CERTAINLY IS THERE FOR EDOUARD TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OR STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
Updated 09/03/02