Hurricane Elida...

From the National Hurricane Center:

ELIDA HAS BROKEN ALL THE DVORAK RULES. IT HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY SINCE YESTERDAY AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 6.0 PLUS WITH OBJECTIVE NUMBERS REACHING 6.5 DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM THUS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION AT THIS STAGE GOES BEYOND THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT AND IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH EYEWALL THERMODYNAMICS. A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE IS RARELY FORECAST BUT WITH THE OBSERVED TREND AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 140 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WINDS TO 157 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS. 

ELIDA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND IT WOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS LIKELY THEREAFTER AS THE HURRICANE REACHES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

Updated 07/24/02

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