Tropical Storm Christobal...

THE CLOUD PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A STRONG LOW EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...CRISTOBAL HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ACTIVITY EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 40 KNOTS AND IS MOSTLY BASED ON A REPORT FROM SHIP WUQL AND CONTINUITY. THIS SHIP WAS ALSO USED TO ADJUST THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII OUTWARD. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS REPORTED BY RAOBS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND WITH SUCH A PATTERN...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM...AND THE GFDL AND NAVY COAMPS MAKE CRISTOBAL A STRONG HURRICANE. THIS IS NOT THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS OPTED FOR THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.

CRISTOBAL HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY GLOBAL MODELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS GENERAL SOLUTION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

Updated 08/07/02

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