Tropical Storm Hernan...

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...AN EYE IS STILL OBSERVED...SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. HERNAN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO HIGHER SHEAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS. 

HERNAN IS MOVING 295 DEGREES ABOUT 9 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE WILL SOON REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AFTER 48 HOURS...HERNAN SHOULD BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A DISSIPATING HERNAN OR A WEAK REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO BE VERY CLOSE TO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST OR NORTHERN BAJA IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THIS AREA WELL IN ADVANCE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

Updated 09/03/02

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